Housing Market Shocker: 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers?!

[00:00:00] Speaker A: And welcome to Rental Property News. I'm Heather Andersen. Let's get started on our top story. This comes from Addison Jarman. Addison is she teaches money hacks, entrepreneurship tips, finance tricks, investment secrets to help you build real long term wealth. Welcome to the money gang, she said. Breaking news US home market home sellers outnumber buyers by almost 4,500,000, the largest gap ever recorded. Well, what does this mean? Let's see what her audience is commenting on here. Trent threw that into Grok and Grok said as of April 2025, the US housing market has approximately 1.9 home sellers compared to 1.5 million home buyers. Now we're going to get to a question that's asked about how does anybody know how many home buyers there are? But let's carry on with this and finish our thought. Resulting in a ratio of about 1.27 sellers per buyer, or roughly 34% more sellers than buyers. That's about a third. This is the largest imbalance since at least 2013 and likely since the 2006 housing bubble, according to Redfin Data. Posts on X from May 29th through the 30th, 2025 collaborate this citing 33% higher of sellers than buyers. With nearly 500,000 more sellers nationwide. The shift indicates a market tilting toward buyers in some regions, driven by increased inventory and fewer competitive bids, though high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continue to impact demand. And then Trent over here, he or Andrew Adams guaranteed rate, looks like he's a lender. He said, hey, how are buyers being counted? And then Trent replies likely the only way they can be. And yes, it's always an estimate. Sellers are obviously much easier to count because trends referring to the fact that listings are what count as sellers. Buyer numbers on the other hand, rely on information from realtor tours, mortgage pre applications, etc. Is it a valid number? No, no way of knowing. But since it's always been calculated like that, they can do derive a trend line from using historical data. But I don't know how anybody would ever log Realtor tours. One buyer might see 50 homes and even then that information is fragmented and private, not public. I would argue the methodology is flawed. Absorption rates are a better measure than a guesstimate or how many folks are looking to buy. And then down here Juliana says likely the number of people that have a buyer agency agreement. Well Juliana, those agreements are private. There's no public forum. Those are private agreements between a broker and the client. So there's no way that anything, any entity could count that only one brokerage could give an estimate of their buyer data. But I threw Allison's comment in the interweb and tried to reverse engineer where this information's coming from. Let's take a look. This article came up from Samantha with cnn. It says home sellers now outnumber buyers by largest Martin margin in 12 years, report finds. So why this hyper emphasis around 12 years and which is 2013? As you'll note from a comment previous, we're going to get to that in just a minute. But after years of bidding wars and climbing home prices, the balance of power in the housing market may finally be shifting. Home sellers now vastly outnumber buyers in the U. S according to an analysis released Thursday from the real estate company Redfin. The report found that there were nearly 500000 more home sellers in the market than buyers as of April, the largest gap of the two groups since Redfin began compiling the data in 2013. So this article is based on the last 12 years of data. Is that a lot of data? That's relative. You get to decide what a lot means to you. But let's click on this analysis and take a look at this article. The US housing market, nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers. The most on record that will likely cause home prices to fall. In this article, as you can see is by redfin, there are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers at at no other point in records dating back to 2013, the sellers have outnumbered buyers this much because that's when they started to record data. They expect home prices to drop by 1% by the end of the year as the result. That's their estimate. Okay, so let's take a look and see what does that mean? What does 1% drop mean? Well, if we go over here to our home appreciation calculator, the average home price in America is $477,200. If we say a negative 1% at one year, that means the home is now worth $403,128. Would that make you not want to buy? It might. It might not. But you remember on our previous RPN we pulled a report from this company, Norada Real Estate Investments, which had a really in depth and detailed report U. S home price projections for the next four years, 2025-20. And they're saying after a strong showing in 2024 where national home prices grew by an estimated 5.8%, the expert panel expects things to slow down a bit but not slam into reverse. For 2025, the average forecast for home price to increase 3.4% and then 2026 is 3.3 growth. So Redfin saying negative 1%. They're saying negative 3.4%. Who's right? I don't know. This is saying a year in from 2025 projected cumulative percent change. So again they're saying increase every year with collective and cumulative increase over the next five years of about 20%. So you get to discern what is real and what isn't. And remember, if we're thinking about that, we are going to agree with Redfin's article and say negative 1% and negative 4,000 a year. Well, most home buyers are going to write off two things that they can't write off unless they own a home. The first thing is called property taxes. So you can deduct property taxes up to $10,000 on your federal return. That includes state and local property taxes. So what is your tax rate? And remember, tax rate is not a stair step approach. It is a income increment based algorithm. So you cannot figure exactly what this number is going to be. But, but we always just kind of estimate 20%. So roughly. Okay, roughly. That's never going to be a straight line number even to be more conservative, call it 15%. So you would get $1,500 back on if you paid 10,000 in property taxes. Again, very rudimentary calculation. And then the mortgage interest deduction, you can deduct interest paid on your mortgage also on your taxes up to the first $750,000 of your loan. Okay. Which used to be a lot of money. Still is. But it seems like it's much less than it used to be, doesn't it? So you can, you can deduct that now. You will. Generally speaking, of course you're going to have more expenses as a home buyer because you're going to have repairs. You might even have higher utility costs. If you're coming from an apartment and you're going to buy, buy more things. You might buy a lawnmower, you might buy a hedger and a weed eater. You might even find yourself doing a little more shopping because you want to get that special piece for that little nook in the house for convenience. And you might spend more money than you would not having a house for things like that. But because you get the write offs, maybe you spend a little more, maybe it equals out, maybe you're ahead, maybe you're a little below. But there is a cost to homeownership or value to homeownership beyond Finance, and that is just having something of ownership. And I'm speaking to owner occupied homeowners. And of course, I'm speaking to you potential or already suited rental property investor. And so this report says that the monthly residential sales in April, there were still 743,000 homes sold, 504,000 homes for sale. And then our median sales price, which I actually called average earlier, our median sales price, the middle sales price of all recorded home sales was that. That was the number in which I did the calculation on a negative 1% decline. So that point is, homes are selling just like they were selling in 2012, because American homes for Rent, which as of December of 2019, the company owned 52,000 homes in 2022. The company was established in October 2012 by Wayne Hughes, founder of Public Storage. It was one of the first large public companies to begin investing heavily in single family family homes following the entry of the Blackstone Group into the field in 2012. Early funding for the company included $600 million investment from the Alaska Permanent Fund, which I believe was a retirement fund. And why am I bringing this up? Because if Redfin is saying we have way more sellers than buyers and a lot of time, what that does is it makes people think the sky is falling and there's a recession. This is sensationalism. And so you get to discern one individual pathway for yourself. It is unique to you. And you get to decide what do you want to be in this market. There is no good market and there is no bad market. Those words don't exist. What exists is your goals. And then you align your goals with whatever the reality of the market is. American Homes for Rent felt that buying in a market where most people would not buy was a good move. And it turned out to pay off incredibly well for them, as you can see from this chart. This chart begins in 1997 and it goes through 2014. And if you can look in 202012 here, which is right here. Sorry, this pixel keeps popping up. You can see this. And then this middle dotted line is the average. I'm sorry, this red line is the average home price in 91 central cities. Okay, the red line. So you can see when the recession began, you know, really well began, obviously when it started receding. But once we kind of got to the trough, we were still receding, but it was more flat. You can see from 2000, late 8, 2008, 2009, really all the way to 2012, that that isn't exactly a flat line, but it's pretty close It's a lot more flat than this huge decline and it's relatively flat. But you can see we were still, we weren't technically in a recession. We, we'd already started the expansion here in 2011, but it did not feel that way. It was very slow. You can see that it's a very flat increase. Very flat. Not sharp like it started to get over here in 20 later 2012. 13. But anecdotally speaking, 2012 for normal buyers was slightly. Still a very slow year. It did not get busy until 2014 with the normal buyer. In 2012, we had articles from Housing Wire. You can see this one was written in January of 2013 saying housing inventory steadily declines in 2020 12. The number of homes on the market dropped 27% from the same month according to 2011. So how would you interpret that you're coming out of a recession that you've been in for going on five years and or even longer. The recession started in really 06, but you were in a. Everybody was aware fully of the recession and feeling the pain of it by 2008, 9, 10 and 11, lots of foreclosures. So everybody's starting to come out of hibernation in 2012, but not many people until 2014. So you can feel the. This article saying they dropped 27%. What does that mean? Okay, how would you interpret that? And then this article from CBS News, In February of 2013, US home prices shot up in 2020 12. And this is them recapping the year. Okay, so we have one article saying inventory steadily declines. That sounds negative. And then we say home prices shot up in 2020 12. Now, low supply, high demand, which, which means increased prices. Okay, and even still, what does shot up mean exactly? Home prices rose 8.3% in December compared with a year earlier, according to data Tuesday from CoreLogic, a real estate data provider. This, which is CoreLogic, is still one of the biggest real estate data providers. This is the biggest annual gain since May of 2006. Prices rose last year in 45 of 50 states. So if people reading this article, some of them might have started to make a move in 2013, some of them might have waited in 2014, some of them might have never came and did anything. So it's all relative. That's the point. That is the point. Because it turns out 2012 was a really good year to buy real estate. According to our friends at Redfin. A new. And this was published in 2019. A new report from Redfin revealed 2012 was an absolutely fantastic time to purchase a home. Collectively, the crop of home buyers earned 203 billion in equity since their well, time purchases. And the median homeowner have gained 261% or $141,000. And guess what? If you bought that same home in 2008, 2006, when it was before the decline, you would have still made 261% or $141,000. Because the market rebounds. That's what that means. It goes down, goes up, then it comes down and then it goes up again. So as you can see, the height of the 2006 market, this chart only goes to 2014, but you can see it was already starting to climb. And climb it did. Remember, real estate is always a a positive investment. It's just a function of time. Okay? It's the function of time. Just like the timing was right for these people. People that locked in a 30 year fixed mortgage at 2.69% in 2021. Don't we could all wish we could all be this beautiful and lucky. But you can be. And just because you missed 2.69% in 2021 does not mean you will miss everything. Because the key to getting ahead is getting started. Because as we go back to learn from the past so we can better prepare for the future, let's take a quick break and learn about how you can help support this value for value proposition that we're offering at Rental Property University. With this Rental Property news segment, you can either if you like what we're doing and you want to join the tribe, you have three ways to do it. You can offer your time by clicking the subscribe button. Will you be our 55th subscriber? You can hit the like and subscribe button or you can give your talent like like Custom Baker Jen did by giving us these sugar cookie custom printed Rental Property University sugar cookies at a discount to help support our business. And we want to do the same for her as her QR code for her beautiful businesses right here. Edible photo booth Custom Baker Gin in the DFW Texas area. 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She's lived in Frisco for 40 years. [00:18:47] Speaker C: And then I have a lot of bluebirds and sparrows. [00:18:52] Speaker B: Davis and her family moved from Dallas to Frisco when it was a small town. Now, where grain once grew, houses are the main crop. The times may have changed, but the reasons for moving here haven't. [00:19:08] Speaker A: Family, a sense of community and caring about the people and your home and that. I think it would be really nice to have more people like that. [00:19:17] Speaker B: In 1990, the census population reported that more than 6,000 people lived in Prisco. By the beginning of 1996, close to 18,000 have moved in. And city officials expect that number to continue to grow. [00:19:30] Speaker C: I think it's an exciting time in Frisco so that you can have some. [00:19:33] Speaker D: Of the new exciting growth and some. [00:19:35] Speaker C: Of the modern things that come with. [00:19:37] Speaker D: That while at the same time retaining some of the small town charm. [00:19:42] Speaker B: While some may like Frisco to remain small, they welcome those who see the same serenity they did years ago. [00:19:49] Speaker C: It's gonna grow and you have to go with the growth. [00:19:53] Speaker B: Deborah Damiano, Texas News 5. [00:19:56] Speaker A: I wonder if Deborah Damiamo was. She bought some in 1995. I know I do. So let's look and see where the Frisco population is today. So it's 2025, but the latest city data has it at 225,000 people in 2023. And in 1995, the average home price was around $114,000. Today, in May 2025, approximately $680,000 is the average home price. So what does that mean? If we look on our growth calculator, it's actually 30 years. And let's see if we can figure this out. Was it 6%? Roughly that. Roughly that 6.1% ish would be what the annual rate of return would be over the last 30 years of growth, which is beating inflation on average. So not a bad investment from my perspective. But you get to decide if you think this is something that excites you or doesn't. Sha' Carri Richardson purchased a home in Claremont, Florida for 580,000. Despite making 20 million over five years through her Nike contract, she has decided to stay humble. So no matter what you buy, the goal is buy real estate. And Sha' Carri found that to be true. Beautiful home, my friend. And this in this story, elevated real estate Investing says most people think they can't invest in real estate because they don't have the money or the credit. That's a lie. I've helped dozens of students close deals with none of their own cash. It's about. It's not about what's in your account. It's about your strategy. Multifamily properties in 90 days and is helping others do the same. So I don't know what program they're selling here. Most people never invest because they don't know this strategy. I'm showing you how to build real estate from the ground up. And there's a few people that are definitely interested in can you build multi family properties in 90 days for no money? Well, anything's possible, you know. A group of Amish community members from central Pennsylvania helped build tiny homes in Boone, North Carolina. It made 12 in just two days. Look. They also donated $300,000 toward the project and plan to come back in January. I think I speak for all North Carolinians when I say thank you so much. Well, if the Amish can do it, anything is possible. You go, my friend. You go. The first national Co Living conference launches in Denver, Colorado, June 6th and 7th. CO Living. What is Co Living? Let's hop into what that is. But in the article it says with housing costs continuing to outpace income growth across major metropolitan areas, Co Living has emerged as a proven solution that increases housing affordability by 30 to 50% while generating superior returns for property investors. And when they say superior returns, I'm curious to know how long do they have a track record for these superior returns? The conference will show craze strategies that have helped create over 20,000 co living doors across the United States, from single family home conversions to purpose built developments. So is this your rental property pathway? Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. But let's get educated first a little bit, shall we? Co Living is a shared housing arrangement where individuals rent private rooms within a larger space while also sharing common areas like kitchens, living rooms and sometimes bathrooms. It's often seen as a more community oriented alternative to traditional roommate setups with features like flexible lease term furnished spaces and shared utilities. So is this Roommates 2.0 or maybe if you're familiar with Europe hostels, is this Hostels 2.0 a little more upscale? Possibly. According to I beard I beardola iberola.com saying co living and co housing. It's calling these co living and co housing. I think co housing is what they're referring to as the old school. You rent a house and each person stays in a room and then you share the kitchen where co living spaces are more renovated or built for an idea where you're going to live and work in the same environment and you're going to be more. You're going to have a room but you're going to share more the amenities together. And maybe there's more amenities in this space like, like a co working space within the co living space. So they're saying the the co living model has some more communal spaces than co housing where the so that residents can get together convenience. Co living arrangements offer more of a greater variety of services than co housing such as co working areas, length of stay. Co living is designed for short stays while co housing is intended to provide permanent homes location. Co living is geared towards cities while cohousing is more contact with nature. I don't know about that one demographic. Co living creates a special specific communities while causing admits a greater diversity of people. Okay, and then age co Living is for 30 somethings. Well, co housing is for older people, families and groups. Maybe that's true, maybe that isn't. That's just their interpretation of what that means. And then if we look at this project, this is co living design study by Mr. MVRDV.com and they're calling this idea a vertical neighborhood. Okay. So they're taking it to the next level and they're really thinking about the future. Okay. And they're saying hey, these yellow spaces are are the living spaces and all the other colorful and rooftop spaces are the co habitating collective spaces and offices and you live and you work in the same space. Additionally they put a graphic down here which is, which is a metric that they're Saying hey, in 2030 maybe their vertical neighborhood looks like this. But by 2100 they're saying there's going to be a vertical farm using direct sunlight for cultivation, giving shade to housing units against overheating. Now I don't know about you, that sounds very, very cool. A vertical farm. Very fascinating. So is that the space you want to go in? Is this the future you want to build? Oh dear rental property investor. Are you the guy like Elon that wants to go to Mars? Or are you more of the traditional property investor? Either pathway is right. There is no wrong pathway. What matters is that you make a decision because the key to getting ahead is getting started. And comparison is the thief of all joy. [00:28:03] Speaker D: So. [00:28:04] Speaker A: So you must choose, because you can only choose one pathway. So go banking rates.com is saying more than nine in ten Americans say corporate landlords make homeownership harder and two things home buyers slash investors can do the US has seen a sharp rise in the number of institutional investors buying single family homes over the past decade as rental property, giving corporate landlords much more power over the housing market. What's a corporate landlord? Well, it's just like the company we were talking about earlier with American Homes for Rent. This in turn has made it harder for many Americans to own a home, mainly because they have a complete have to compete against entities with a lot more buying power. A report published last year by the Government Accountability Office revealed that recently, as recently as 2011, no investor owned a thousand or more single family rental homes in the U.S. by 2015, institutional investors collectively owned an estimated 170,000 to 300 homes. Seven years later, that figure had ballooned to 450,000 single family homes, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition. The rapid increase in corporate landlords has created a challenging environment for both teams, tenants and house hunters, according to a recent survey of a thousand Americans from JW Shorty Bonds, which we'll look into momentarily. The report, released in late March, found that more than nine out of 10Americans, 93%, believe corporate ownership of homes makes homeownership less accessible. One in 20 had lost a bid to a corporate landlord, or roughly 20% know someone that has research the market. As JW Surety Bonds noted, there's a general lack of awareness on the part of many Americans about the scale of corporate home ownership. About 10% of those surveyed didn't know that businesses managing multiple rental properties were acquiring single family homes and also big entities slash companies, if you will, aren't just acquiring single family homes, they're also acquiring farmland. Bill Gates owns 275,000 acres of farmland, making him the largest private farmland owner in the U.S. the land spans over, I guess, in 17 states. So remember, don't get overwhelmed. You just need to remember that you just need a few wins. You just need a few wins. Well, remember, our friend Warren Buffett reminds us that you only need four or five wins, not 100, not 225,000 acres. Don't forget that. Don't let fear riddle you Pick a pathway, get started. So in the corporate landlord effect is what now? I guess RSK Risk Surety Bond Strategies. Maybe they're deeming it that. Okay, so this is that study that they came up with, who Owns the American Dream? The Rise of Corporate Landlords. Well, again, if you just need four or five, can you get four or five? Even with this landscape, I believe you can. This is a really well done study with great graphics and great statistics. But remember, when reading any statistical report, I would encourage you to consider taking it with a grain of salt because you want to ask the question of who did the study? I don't know who JW Surety Bonds is and how many people did they survey? So they said. We surveyed a thousand Americans to uncover the extent of corporate home ownership, of corporate ownership in the single family housing market and its ripple effects. The average age of employees was 39. 55% were women, 43 male, 2 generally 7% were baby boomers, 18% were Gen X, 51% were millennials and 24% Gen Z. Well, where were these thousand Americans? What city did they live in? How was the survey distributed? Was it a phone call? Was it marked on a computer? Were they paid to do the survey? Was there an incentive there? Were they. When was the survey done? When I know it was came out in 2025. When was the survey done and how long did it take to do so? Those are some questions to ask when you're thinking about surveys. And remember, you only need four or five to be successful. There is Warren, they got a punch. [00:33:14] Speaker C: Card with 20 punches on it. And that's all the investment decision. If when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it. And that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life. They would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one. And you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich. Four or five will probably do it over time. So. [00:33:38] Speaker A: So there you have it. Because remember, in order to prepare for the future, we must first learn about the past. And on this day in history, a coronation ceremony was given June 1953 to Princess Elizabeth, which became Queen Elizabeth, predecessor to her father, King George vi, in Westminster Abbey, which Westminster Abbey held the coronations for the last 900 years. But Queen Elizabeth's coronation was unique because in 1953 it was groundbreaking in its own right, the first ever to be televised. It was watched by 27 million people in the UK alone and millions more audiences around the world. Is this Maybe the reason for the paparazzi and the fascination with the royal family in such a deep way, because this was the first family that was ever televised to the world in that way. Maybe, maybe not. We'll never really know the answer to that. But if Abbey has done the last thousand years of coronations, it's pretty significant. And in those last thousand years of coronations, there's a list of all those coronated dating back from 899 with Edward the Elder. Have you ever heard of him? He was an Archbishop of Canterbury or Aethelstan, or Edmund I in 939. Or Eadred or Edwig or Edgar or Edward the Martyr or Ethered the Unready or Edmund the Ironside or Sea Nut or Harthichnut or Edward the Confessor. Okay, maybe you've heard of a few of these, but I doubt you know much about them. Because even though they were the King of England, time goes by and they get forgotten. Just like you're going to be and just like I'm going to be. And that's okay, because don't let anything, especially articles like this, hold you back from your mission on this one wild and precious life. And one coronated king we might remember is George IV the Sixth, because he was possibly in your lifetime. And was he remembered because of his greatest achievement during the Second World War, when he remained most of the time at Buckingham palace and when he worked with Winston Churchill. Maybe. Probably you remember him because of this. [00:36:43] Speaker D: My husband is. Well, he's required to speak publicly. [00:36:51] Speaker C: What if I told you that 2025 could be the biggest year yet for real estate investors I have received. [00:37:07] Speaker D: Perhaps you should change jobs. And what if my husband were the king? [00:37:13] Speaker A: My husband has seen everyone insert them into your mouth. [00:37:16] Speaker D: Perverted. [00:37:17] Speaker A: Enunciate. [00:37:19] Speaker D: He hasn't seen me. I can cure your husband, but I need total trust. What was your earliest memory? I'm not here to discuss personal matters. Why are you here then? Because I bloody well stammer. Do you know any jokes? Timing isn't my strong suit. [00:37:38] Speaker A: Your methods are unorthodox and controversial. [00:37:41] Speaker D: Up comes your royal hands. It's actually quite good fun. Yes. Art thou afeard? It's your peculiar. I take that as a compliment. War with Germany will come and we will need a king whom we can all stand behind, afraid of his own shadow. The nation believes that when I speak, I speak for them. But I can't speak. You could do it. You needn't be governed by fear. Be like mad King George the stammered. Get up. You can't sit there. Get up. Why not? It's a chair. [00:38:16] Speaker A: That. [00:38:17] Speaker D: That is St. Edward's chair. People have carved their names. Listen to me. Listen to me. Why should I waste my time listening to you? Because I have a voice. Yes, you do. Your greatest test is yet to come. [00:38:32] Speaker A: What's he say? [00:38:33] Speaker D: I don't know, but he seems to be saying it rather. The world. Your first wartime speech broadcast to the nation and the world at this great time of presence, however this turns out. I don't know how to thank you, Bertie. You're the bravest man I know. I intend to be a very good queen to a very great king. Forget everything else and just say it to me. [00:39:02] Speaker A: Would you remember this movie, I mean, would you remember King George VI if there wasn't this movie and this movie was so popular and well done, that. [00:39:16] Speaker D: Now, if you'll all excuse me, I have some impulses I have to tend to backstage. Thank you very much. [00:39:24] Speaker A: Daddy won Best soccer. So, my dear friend, as we end this episode, I hope you remember what your mission is. And if you don't know what it is, find out. Even if it isn't this pathway, this is designed to tell you the truth and help you discern what is real and what isn't real. So you can get started on your mission and find your success. And although, like me, you might not be remembered years, decades and centuries after you pass from this earth, there is a chance that the work you do here today could live beyond you. After all, building rental property is bigger than you. It is about generational wealth and the people that come after you. Thank you for listening and have a good evening.